Satoshi
Countdown

Twenty one million. No more. Ever.

Live supply, fiat expansion, and the policy fights that decide whether hard money gets a fair market. One thesis: absolute scarcity.

Read the thesis CLARITY Act tracker
Sats remaining to mine
90,268,750,000,000
902,687.50 BTC left · 95.70% of supply mined · about 2140 final sat

News & insights

What the desk is watching

Nine live pulls across Bitcoin, policy, and macro. Source diverse, topical first.

Wire CryptoSlate

FTX’s former Bitcoin mining bet gets new life as parent raises €800 million for AI

The new equity backs a wider AI platform while SWI pursues its existing plan to reposition Genesis Digital Assets' mining sites. The post FT…
Wire Decrypt

Meta's New Muse Wonder Finally Puts Zuckerberg in the Frontier AI Race

Meta's new flagship beats GPT-6 Astra and Claude on memory, legal and marathon coding tests, but independent rankings still put Anthropic's …
Wire Decrypt

From GTA V on iPhone to Free Photoshop: This AI Tool Is Upending Software

REA, a free toolkit that hands AI agents the keys to reverse engineering, crossed 100,000 GitHub stars in a week as AI-decompiled game mods,…
Thesis Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Extends Slide — Can ‘Uptober’ 2026 Beat Last Year’s?

Bitcoin Magazine Bitcoin Extends Slide — Can ‘Uptober’ 2026 Beat Last Year’s? Bitcoin is off to a rough start so far this month. But things …
Wire CryptoSlate

Standard Chartered brings Ripple’s RLUSD into banking custody after $765 million quarterly surge

Eligible clients can custody XRPL-issued RLUSD through the DIFC branch; the planned LMAX collateral link remains conditional and undated. Th…
Wire Cointelegraph

Here’s what happened in crypto today

Need to know what happened in crypto today? Here is the latest news on daily trends and events impacting Bitcoin price, blockchain, DeFi, We…
Wire Cointelegraph

Crypto PACs report $2.7M spending blitz on House races as midterms loom

With just 22 days until the US midterm elections, a crypto-aligned committee has announced another major ad expenditure to support “pro-cryp…
Thesis Bitcoin Magazine

Ledger Investigates Fund Losses Tied to Southeast Asian Reseller After Implant Found in Device

Bitcoin Magazine Ledger Investigates Fund Losses Tied to Southeast Asian Reseller After Implant Found in Device Ledger has reassured users a…
Wire Cointelegraph

Bitcoin miners face widening AI financing costs as lenders scrutinize deals

The Bitcoin mining industry needs roughly $50 billion to complete planned AI infrastructure projects, with IREN, Riot Platforms and HIVE Dig…

The Bitcoin thesis

Hard money in a soft money world

Bitcoin is absolute scarcity competing with politically expandable money. Fixed issuance. Soft money as policy. Markets that either clear the path or push liquidity abroad.

  • Fixed issuance schedule

    Subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks. Current reward 3.125 BTC → 1.5625 BTC at block 1,050,000 (about 548 days).

  • Fiat is a policy choice

    M2, deficits, and rate regimes change with politics. Bitcoin’s monetary policy is client consensus, not a committee vote.

  • Rules need markets

    CLARITY style market structure and executive posture decide whether U.S. capital can treat BTC as a first class asset, or leave liquidity offshore.

Protocol desk

BIPs & the reference client

Bitcoin Improvement Proposals are how the network documents design changes. Read them clearly, then follow the code where consensus actually ships.

Cornerstone proposals

  • BIP 42

    Finite monetary supply. The 21 million cap written into the process.

  • BIP 141

    Segregated Witness. Capacity and malleability fixes at the consensus layer.

  • BIP 340

    Schnorr signatures for secp256k1. Cleaner multisig and aggregation path.

  • BIP 341

    Taproot. Script privacy and efficiency for modern spending paths.

  • BIP 3

    Updated BIP process. How proposals move from draft toward deployment.

Policy radar

CLARITY Act & Trump alerts

Regulation and the White House set the institutional on ramp. Track the bill. Watch the headlines that move odds.

Passed House · Awaiting Senate floor

H.R. 3633 · Digital Asset Market Clarity Act

A market structure bill that would split SEC and CFTC oversight of digital commodities, set registration paths for intermediaries, and constrain a Fed retail CBDC. Separate from the enacted GENIUS Act on stablecoins.

As of mid July 2026, Senate Banking reported a substitute on Jun 1. Floor vote faces a tight window before the roughly Aug 7 recess. Midterms make a 2026 slip costly.

  1. Introduced May 29, 2025
  2. Passed House Jul 17, 2025 · 294 to 134
  3. Senate Banking reported Jun 1, 2026
  4. Senate floor vote Pending
  5. To President Pending
  6. Became law Pending
Open on Congress.gov →

Trump & Bitcoin alerts

Executive crypto posture, PAC flows, and ethics fights that spill into CLARITY.

No Trump or Bitcoin alerts in the latest pull. Refresh shortly.

Bitcoin treasuries

Who holds the stack

Public companies, private firms, governments, ETFs and exchanges, and DeFi wrappers. Five ledgers of capital that treats Bitcoin as reserve.

4,189,633 BTC across five ledgers As of July 2026
1,263,186 BTC tracked in category 197 entities Listed companies holding BTC on the balance sheet.
# Holder Ticker / code BTC Est. USD
1 Strategy United States MSTR 843,775 $69.87B
2 Twenty One Capital United States XXI 43,514 $3.60B
3 Metaplanet Inc. Japan MPJPY 43,000 $3.56B
4 MARA Holdings United States MARA 36,303 $3.01B
5 Bitcoin Standard Treasury United States BSTR 30,021 $2.49B
6 Bullish United States BLSH 24,300 $2.01B
7 Strive United States ASST 19,921 $1.65B
8 SpaceX United States SPCX 18,712 $1.55B
9 Coinbase Global United States COIN 16,492 $1.37B
10 Riot Platforms United States RIOT 15,680 $1.30B
11 CleanSpark United States CLSK 13,924 $1.15B
12 Tesla United States TSLA 11,509 $953.1M
13 Hut 8 United States HUT 10,278 $851.1M
14 Trump Media & Technology United States DJT 9,542 $790.2M
15 Block United States XYZ 9,032 $747.9M

Holdings as of July 2026. Figures change with disclosures. Not financial advice.

World acceptance

Where Bitcoin is welcome

From El Salvador’s curso legal experiment to bans and strategic interest. Policy geography for hard money.

Loading map…

  • Curso legal / voluntary tender
  • Strategic reserve interest
  • Legal and regulated
  • Restricted
  • Banned or hostile

Prediction markets

Bitcoin & economy odds

Live odds for Bitcoin price paths, CLARITY Act passage, and related macro bets. Crowd priced signals next to the news wire.

Bitcoin $5.83M vol

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

$2.15M liq · 19 markets · ends Nov 1, 2026

Top 5 selections

  1. Reach $85,000 71%
  2. Dip to $80,000 61.5%
  3. Reach $87,500 46.5%
  4. Dip to $77,500 35.5%
  5. Reach $90,000 29.5%
Fed $942.6K vol

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

$220.0K liq · 5 markets · ends Jan 1, 2027

Top 5 selections

  1. 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026 70%
  2. 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026 20.5%
  3. 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026 7.9%
  4. 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026 0.7%
  5. 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026 0.3%
CLARITY $291.8K vol

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

$113.2K liq · 15 markets · ends Jan 2, 2027

Top 5 selections

  1. Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act 10%
  2. Catherine Cortez Masto vote "Yea" on the Clari… 9.5%
  3. Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act 9.3%
  4. Raphael Warnock vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act 9%
  5. Alex Padilla vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act 7.6%
CLARITY $136.9K vol

How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

$84.9K liq · 8 markets · ends Jan 2, 2027

Top 5 selections

  1. over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act 7%
  2. over 55 Senators vote for the Clarity Act 6.5%
  3. over 60 Senators vote for the Clarity Act 6.5%
  4. over 62 Senators vote for the Clarity Act 6.1%
  5. over 58 Senators vote for the Clarity Act 6%

Odds refresh on each page load. Not financial advice.

The wire

Bitcoin & macro headlines

Fresh headlines on Bitcoin, policy, and macro. Filtered toward scarcity, regulation, and the money that competes with a fixed supply.

Cointelegraph

Here’s what happened in crypto today

Need to know what happened in crypto today? Here is the latest news on daily trends and events impacting Bitcoin price, blockchain, DeFi, Web3 and crypto regulation.

Macro lens

Price, money supply, debt

The charts that frame the thesis: Bitcoin versus expanding dollars and national debt.

Bitcoin

Absolute scarcity priced in dollars

M2 money supply

Expanding claims on goods & assets

U.S. national debt

Fiscal path Bitcoin is measured against

Supply clock

Mining progress

95.70% of the 21M supply mined · 902,687.50 BTC remaining

Block reward
3.125 BTC
Blocks to halving
78,860
Difficulty
132.72T
Est. days to halving
~548